about 60 days to go...

I should introduce myself. I'm a politcal science and economics student at a small liberal arts school in Waverly, Iowa. Though I'm a registered Republican, I have been extremely frusterated with the past 8 years, of deficit spending, irresponsible tax cuts, and what have found to be rather intolerant view of differences. I do support Senator McCain and though he doesn't excite me the way I wish a presidential candidate could, I do feel he will be a much more responsible leader. While my heart wishes that a man with the political talents of Senator Obama could be president, I find myself at odds with nearly every proposal of his, as well as his change message.
But where does the election stand so far? While Senator Obama's fans appear to be panicking and Senator McCain's cheering, neither side should be ready to claim victory yet. In fact, while the latest Intrade results show Senator McCain with a lead, Senator Obama should still be the favorite. Senator McCain's recent bump is due to surprising running mate selection, her speech, and recent hiccups by Senator Obama. It won't be long before the Palin shock wears off and the election is right back where it started, in a near dead heat. What should worry the McCain campaign more is the electoral map. The current map would give Senator Obama a narrow win, and that is with losses in Ohio and Florida. Should Senator McCain increase his poll position by one or two points, the reverse scenario is possible. Perhaps the Palin pick will have done that. Governor Palin appeared to hold her own with Charles Gibson, but her shaky answers on foreign policy and the Bush Doctrine will not bode well for the upcoming debates. In the meantime, Senator McCain has found his own rock star, which draws attention towards his campaign, a welcome change for him. Regardless, this election is referendum on Senator Obama. Many voters are voting against him, not for Senator McCain, and for a variety of reasons, some valid and others not as much.
Perhaps the most interesting poll to come out is the generic Republican vs Democrat. It has been closed to about four points, a much more troubling sign for the Democrats. Without the large independent vote and party identification gap, they will struggle to pick up many seats in Congress, which should worry them far more then a McCain victory. While Democrats appear poised to pick up three seats for sure (Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado), recent polls show Senator Sununu gaining on Governor Shaneen, a race once thought all but over and a certain Democrat pickup. Clearly public opinion has split again and despite all the talk of change, the nation may be back to an election with several red states, several blue states, and few battleground states.